the deck
Mindset · Dan Koe · future/proof

The most important skill for the next 10 years

Most skills may be irrelevant in 10–20 years. Agency won't be — the ability to set your own direction, do what it takes, and resist the infinite distractions. Five ideas, then a practice loop.

Reformatted for internal use · animations are CSS & SVG, no external assets
Idea I

Agency is the ability to iterate without permission

It is only those who are in constant revolt that discover what is true, not the man who conforms.— Krishnamurti

Agency is not mechanical conformity — a mind still umbilically wired to society, judging truth by popularity and acceptance rather than by direct investigation. Around half the population sits at the conformist stage of ego development. It stems from survival: humans survive psychologically (reproducing beliefs) as much as physically. If a job vanishing would sink you, you have low agency in that domain — so you conform. Identity fused to a religion or party — low agency. Even tech-Twitter's "high agency" talk is its own conformity.

act outcome reflect adjust PERMISSION initiate → fail → correct → again — with no outside prompting
Anyone can start. Agency is the undying commitment to iteration afterward.
  • 1Iterate without permission. Be the subject of the sentence, not its object (Eriksen). Not just acting toward a goal — correcting mistakes without being seduced back to comfort because "it's not working." (Yes — the people who start writing and quit after two weeks.)
  • 2Treat life as one giant experiment. Low agency = the employee mindset: assigned a task, status/credential triggers tribe-acceptance, decisions get compromised. High agency = scientist of your own life: idea → your own goal → hypothesis → test → fail a lot (expected) → narrow down.
  • 3Believe in the difficult. Goals are easy / difficult / impossible. Low agency mis-files difficult as impossible — Seligman's dogs took the shocks even when a low wall would have let them escape. Most people bear the shocks of the default path.
EASY — skills you already have DIFFICULT — reachable with new skills IMPOSSIBLE — until the difficult is done low agency mis-files DIFFICULT as IMPOSSIBLE a wall it could hop bears the shocks of the default path
You were trained to believe there's no way — so you don't even try.

What this section means

Agency isn't a personality trait you have or lack — it's action plus iteration, practised. The first move is to notice where your survival is pinned to something someone else controls, and start loosening it.

Idea II

AI is not a threat to the high-agency

You already have access to any knowledge you'd ever need — and most people still do nothing with it. So this was never about access or equal opportunity. It was always about agency. High-agency people will outpace everyone by 10× because the barriers to action are now near zero; if money or resources block a big goal, they set a smaller stepping-stone goal that unlocks it.

"AI will flood the world with content" — AI is a tool; it needs someone with a purpose. You can mass-generate a thousand viral posts, but monetisation, loyalty and brand still need a vision. Creators are context creators, not content creators. 99% of AI output sinks because with no human context there's no throughline, no personality, no vision.

  • BBusiness: needs a brand mission AI executes — plus constant iteration.
  • KA book: needs control of every detail — plus an audience, marketing and sales, which the book won't do itself.
  • AArt: still needs an idea you're bringing into reality. "If you can't create art with AI, you were never an artist — you were good at a tool."

What this section means

The new thing isn't erasing value — it's spotlighting what was always the value: vision, context, iteration. Tools get replaced. Vision and agency don't.

Idea III

Why generalists win in the AI age

The quote is a misquote. It ends: "…but oftentimes better than a master of one." Shakespeare's playwriting was a vessel — under it sat human nature, language, philosophy, stagecraft, medicine, navigation. Visionaries (CEOs, Darwin, Jobs) start with a vision, then learn what it takes. Don't confuse a niche or vessel with being a specialist.

SPECIALIST · one skill skill replaced → tower falls GENERALIST · re-routes one node drops, the path finds another
Photoshop disrupted design. AI is doing the same. Skill-experts are furious; synthesizers adapt.

Humans are tool builders — a lion dies in Alaska, a human builds shelter. The Prussian / industrial school model was mass conformity by design: mandatory attendance, grade levels, testing — obedient workers. Society wants you simple, predictable and easy to categorise because that serves the pyramid. The response: revolt against the birth-assigned path, pursue an interest-based education, use your capabilities wisely.

What this section means

Pick a vision, not a job title. Let the skills be swappable parts underneath it. "Deep generalist" isn't dabbling — it's synthesis aimed at one moving target.

Idea IV

The five human capabilities

Will AGI make human intelligence irrelevant? Reframe: given tools and knowledge, are our capabilities effectively infinite within the laws of physics? Walk the five.

IDEA SPACE — bright = explored · faint = potential Computation Transformation Variation Selection Attention
Compute the map · move through it · try new routes · keep the good ones · switch the lens.
  • 1Computation (mental). A universal computer in your hand — no ceiling, just time and memory. AGI computes faster, but that doesn't speed the physical build.
  • 2Transformation (physical). Raw materials → rockets, given knowledge. We build the thing that builds the thing. Time is the constraint — "a compression algorithm that stops everything happening at once." A singularity doesn't remove it.
  • 3Variation. No limit to the new ideas you can try across idea space.
  • 4Selection. Finding the good ideas — cumulative progress through error correction, not starting from scratch each time.
  • 5Attention. Switch focus by switching lens — a spiritual lens for peace, a scientific one for progress. Paradigm-lock is the human failure mode, but the capability is there.

What this section means

The AGI panic mostly rests on a misread of reality. Both you and any AGI are bound by physics and time; within that, anything possible is reachable. Your job is to keep error-correcting toward the goal.

Idea V · the practice

How to actually practise agency

In games, we can take up an end for the sake of the means. Playing games can be a motivational inversion of ordinary life.— C. Thi Nguyen, Games: Agency As Art

You build agency by practising other people's agencies until you can create your own — play by the rules until you can write your own. The key high-agency trait is knowing when to break free.

level 1–10 · childhood · school · job — all assigned pursue yourown path
The game-makers don't benefit from you levelling up — so they make level 10 comfortable.

Nobody actually knows what they want — but they know clearly what they don't want. Let that set the aim, turn the aim into a goal, then run the loop:

1 · pursuePick something. Anything. A direction beats a blank.
2 · researchStudy processes others succeeded with — YouTube, social, reputable courses, mentors.
3 · experimentImplement them and try for results. Most won't work for you — that's the point.
4 · identify leversNote the patterns, principles and levers — the few things that actually moved the needle.
5 · make it yoursTailor what's left into your own process, fitted to your life.
6 · pass it downTeach it. You don't understand it until you can make it useful to someone else.

Which is why building in public is the great modern game: it's where the attention is, it's low-risk and low-cost, and learning + agency are baked in — you study others' agencies, experiment in the open with fast feedback, and are forced into a future-proof skill stack (writing, persuasion, marketing, sales, storytelling).

The one-line version

The most important boss fight of your life is: pursue your own path. Everything above is just how you train for it.

If you can steer, you can't be replaced

Set your own direction, do what it takes, dodge the distractions — and replacement stops mattering, because you adapt faster than the thing that replaced you.

— Dan Koe · future/proof
Apply it · 16 years in tech

16 years of assigned tickets. Time to iterate without permission.

Agency is the skill that survives every model release. Aimed at a UK engineer targeting Anthropic or OpenAI: stop waiting for a manager or recruiter to sanction the path — pick the target, form the hypothesis, ship, measure, adjust.

Idea I → applied

Drop the employee mindset

Sixteen years of being handed the task, with a title attached that quietly satisfied the need for tribe-acceptance. That's the exact mechanism the essay calls out. High agency here: you set the goal (a lab), you write the hypothesis for the path, and you don't wait for permission to start executing it in public.

  • 1Subject, not object. Not "I'll apply and see" — "I'll ship an eval this month, measure the response, and adjust."
  • 2Life as experiment. Each rejection or ignored DM is a data point that narrows the search, not a verdict.
  • 3Believe the difficult. "A lab won't hire someone from a consultancy" is a learned-helplessness wall — low, and you're not jumping it.

The move

Run the act → outcome → reflect → adjust loop 15–20 times on your own initiative. That loop is the signal a lab is buying.

Idea II → applied

"AI will do AI engineering" is the wrong fear

The value the labs pay for is the part AI can't supply on command: judgment, a vision to orchestrate toward, and relentless iteration. Be the context creator — the person who has a thesis about what to build and why — not someone who can prompt a framework.

The move

Every artefact you ship should show a decision only a human with context would make — a sharp eval design, an honest failure analysis, a non-obvious benchmark.

Idea III → applied

Sell the synthesis, not the specialty

Sixteen years across infra, product, data and systems is a deep-generalist asset — you can synthesize where a fresh PhD can only go deep. Don't pitch yourself as "the X specialist"; X gets replaced. Pitch the vision and the ability to learn whatever it needs.

The move

Your narrative: "I've shipped across the stack for 16 years; here's the frontier problem I've decided to go deep on, and here's the trail of work proving I can."

Idea V → applied

Run the practice loop against the lab

PursueName the lab and the team. Ambiguity is a blank screen.
ResearchStudy how people actually got in — public writeups, referrals, what work got them noticed.
ExperimentShip: an eval suite, a paper reproduction, a merged PR in a repo the labs read, an honest agent harness.
LeversTrack what draws replies — a specific artefact, a specific pitch, a specific referrer.
Make it yoursTurn the winning pattern into your weekly routine: 2h build · 1 paper · 1 artefact · 1 outreach.
Pass it downWrite about what you learned — the writing itself is the skill Anthropic screens for.

Waiting to be acted upon

  • Apply through the portal, wait for a verdict
  • Grind LeetCode as the whole plan
  • One rejection → "not for people like me"
  • Learn privately, publish nothing

Acting toward a goal

  • Ship an artefact aimed at one team, measure, adjust
  • Get a warm referral from inside
  • 15–20 loops before drawing any conclusion
  • Public trail of work + a blog with real depth

The real boss fight: pursue your own path

You're stuck at "senior at a normal company" — level 10. The next level isn't assigned. Take it.

framework: Dan Koe · application: yours to run
Apply it · starting fresh

New in tech: nobody has to authorise you to start

Agency, not access, is the blocker. Aimed at someone learning their way toward an AI engineering job: iterate without a credential's permission, treat every failed project as search, and use the modern game — building in public — to train the skill.

Idea I → applied

Iterate without a credential's permission

Waiting for a bootcamp, a degree or "feeling ready" to authorise you is conformity — your mind still umbilically wired to a gatekeeper. Start building now; correct as you go. Quitting a project or a posting habit after two weeks because "it's not working" is the precise failure the essay names.

  • 1Subject, not object. Not "once I finish the course I'll build" — "I ship a small thing this week and see what breaks."
  • 2Life as experiment. Most projects and most applications won't land. That's how you narrow to what does.
  • 3Believe the difficult. "You need a CS degree for this" is a low wall you were trained not to jump.

The move

Set a stepping-stone goal you can actually reach this fortnight — one deployed project — instead of staring at the impossible-looking one.

Idea II → applied

Easier than ever — but only if you act

Every tutorial and every model is already available, and most people do nothing with them. Use AI as a stepping stone to execute a vision — build real projects, learn by shipping — not as a way to skip the learning. Collecting courses feels productive and dodges the judgment of shipping something imperfect.

The move

Finish and deploy one real project before buying the next course. The course is usually the hiding place.

Idea III → applied

Stay a generalist — don't over-specialise early

Don't bet everything on one hot framework; it'll be replaced. Entry AI engineering is a generalist stack: solid SWE fundamentals + LLM APIs + retrieval + evals + shipping. Follow an interest-based education — build the things you're actually curious about, and let the skills accumulate under the goal.

The move

Pick projects that force a different corner of the stack each time — one retrieval-heavy, one agent, one eval, one UI.

Idea V → applied

Run the practice loop against the job hunt

PursueYou know what you don't want (stuck, unpaid, "preparing"). Let that set the aim, then set a goal: a paid AI-adjacent role in ~9–12 months.
ResearchStudy how others broke in — junior AI engineers, career-switchers. What did their portfolio look like?
ExperimentShip a small project every fortnight. Apply to 3 tailored roles a week. Post what you learned.
LeversTrack what gets replies — which project, which framing, which community.
Make it yoursTurn the winning pattern into a weekly routine you can hold.
Pass it downWrite a build log for each project. Teaching forces real understanding — and it's your portfolio.

Waiting to be acted upon

  • Collect certificates, wait to feel ready
  • Tutorial-hell: watch, don't build
  • Spray 200 identical applications
  • Learn entirely in private
  • Assume the bootcamp will place you

Acting toward a goal

  • 3–4 deployed projects that solve a real problem
  • A build log for each — what broke, what you'd change
  • 3 tailored applications a week + one human referral
  • Build in public; fast feedback
  • Wide funnel — applied-AI roles at ordinary companies

The real boss fight: pursue your own path

The modern game — building in public — bakes in the loop and a future-proof skill stack. Start playing it before you feel qualified to.

framework: Dan Koe · application: yours to run